What happens when investors react to short-term market news?
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In the next part of our Investing in a Recession series, we look at how being familiar with investing behaviours can help investors avoid certain investing mistakes when reacting to short-term market news.
Investment risk profiles range from the risk-takers on one end, to conservative investors on the other. Risk-takers are those who are comfortable making choices that can have extreme positive or negative consequences, while the conservatives are those who spend weeks buried in spreadsheets before they make the most straightforward decision.
Below are brief descriptions of the different risk profiles.
The different investment risk profiles
Broadly speaking, investors typically fall within one of the five risk profiles below. Investors' risk appetites and the level of return they require determine which profile they fall under.
Conservative
A conservative investor seeks to preserve investment capital as far as possible, using a low-risk investment strategy. This investor requires consistent and low variability in investment returns.
Moderately conservative
A moderately conservative investor seeks to preserve investment capital while achieving stable capital growth. This investor is prepared to take on a little more risk than the conservative investor and requires consistent and low variability in investment returns.
Moderate
A moderate investor prefers capital growth over capital preservation. This investor is prepared to tolerate moderate fluctuations in the year-to-year value of their portfolios and usually have enough time to recover from market downturns.
Moderately aggressive
A moderately aggressive investor seeks capital growth. This investor is willing to accept significant risk and can endure large losses in favour of favourable long-term investment returns.
Aggressive
An aggressive investor seeks maximum capital growth by using an investment strategy that is higher in risk and potential returns. This investor is prepared to tolerate fluctuations of investment returns and has a much longer investment time horizon.
Investors from different risk profiles face different investment pitfalls
Investing always involves risk. And it's this risk that, over the long term especially, is translated into some level of reward. Investors with moderately aggressive or aggressive risk profiles may take too much risk, while conservative and moderately conservative investors may take too little.
Investors can avoid these pitfalls by understanding their money biases. When investors know how they respond to short-term market fluctuations, it will assist them in finding an investment strategy that strikes a balance between offering them comfort and attempting to remove unhelpful emotions from their investment and saving decisions.
Timing the market: A common mistake in reaction to short-term market news
Timing the market refers to the investment strategy of trying to predict market movements and then moving in and out of certain asset classes to maximise returns. This may sound straightforward, but predicting the market can be extremely difficult and can often result in more losses than gains.
For example, research from Investment Solutions, based on I-Net Bridge data, shows that a R100 investment on the JSE (using the All Share Index as the proxy) would have grown to R1 760 over the two decades between 1995 and 2014. An investor who tried to time the market might have missed the 10 best days, which means their investment would be worth almost half that (R965). If they missed the 60 best days, their investment would be worth a tiny R143.
Focusing on those long-term goals will help the investor stay focused, and ignore the noise of short-term market movements that ultimately don't have an impact on the end game. This is why the advice "it's about time in the market, not timing the market" is always valuable to investors.
Why Discovery Invest should be your partner of choice
Despite the current difficult economic environment:
- The Discovery Balanced Fund had a return of 9.07% for the year to end August 2018 against a benchmark return of 3.80%2
- The Discovery Diversified Income Fund had a return of 8.47% for the year to end August 2018 against a benchmark return of 7.29%2
- Our flagship fund, the Discovery Balanced Fund, was the 7th biggest flow taker in the industry, with net flows of R989 million for the second quarter of 2018, making it the 12th biggest retail fund out of more than 1 000 funds in the country (excluding money market funds), as per ASISA (www.asisa.co.za)3
- The Plexcrown Survey for quarter two 2018 shows Discovery Invest retaining a place among the top five asset managers in the country4.
These accomplishments should reassure our clients that their investments are in the right place and there is no need to venture off track by reacting to short-term market movements or downward cycles.
- 1Returns sourced from Bloomberg for period from 1 January 2018 to end August 2018.
- 2Returns from Profile Data to the end of August 2018
- 3https://www.asisa.org.za/media-release/local-cis-industry-grows-investor-assets-to-r2-3-trillion/
- 4Plexcrown Survey for quarter two 2018: http://www.plexcrown.co.za
- www.TheBehaviorGap.com and Skype interview with Carl Richards
Disclaimer
Nothing contained herein should be construed as financial advice and is meant for information purposes only. Discovery Life Investment Services Pty (Ltd): Registration number 2007/005969/07, branded as Discovery Invest, is an authorised financial services provider.
What to know before investing in collective investment schemes (unit trusts)
Before you invest in a collective investment scheme, there is important information you should know. This includes how we calculate the value of your investment, what affects the value of your investment, and investment charges you may have to pay. This notice sets out the information in detail. Speak to your financial adviser if you have any questions about this information or about your investment.
What the investment is
This Fund is a Collective Investment Scheme (also known as a unit trust fund) regulated by the Collective Investment Schemes Control Act, 45 of 2002 (CISCA). Collective investment schemes in securities are generally medium- to long-term investments (around three to five years).
Who manages the investment?
Discovery Life Collective Investments (Pty) Ltd, branded as Discovery Invest, is the manager of the Fund. Discovery Invest is a member of the Association of Savings and Investment South Africa (ASISA).
You decide about the suitability of this investment for your needs
By investing in this Fund, you confirm that:
- We did not provide you with any financial and investment advice about this investment
- You have taken particular care to consider whether this investment is suitable for your own needs, personal investment objectives and financial situation.
You understand that your investment may go up or down
1. The value of units (known as participatory interests) may go down as well as up.
2. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance.
3. Exchange rates may fluctuate, causing the value of investments with international exposure to go up or down.
4. The capital value and investment returns of your portfolio may go up or down. We do not provide any guarantees about the capital or the returns of a portfolio.
How we calculate the unit prices and value the portfolios
1. We calculate unit trust prices on a net-asset value basis. (The net asset value is defined as the total market value of all assets in the unit portfolio, including any income accrued and less any allowable deductions from the portfolio, divided by the number of units in issue.)
2. The securities in collective investment schemes are traded at ruling prices using forward pricing. (Forward pricing means pricing all buy and sell orders of units according to the next net-asset value).
3. We value all portfolios every business day at 16:00, except on the last business day of the month when we value the portfolios at 17:00.
4. For the money market portfolio, the price of each unit is aimed at a constant value. This means that all returns are provided in the form of a distribution and that a change in the capital value will be an exception and only due to abnormal losses.
5. Buy and sell orders will receive the same price for that day if we receive them before 11:00 for the money market portfolio and before 14:00for the other portfolios.
6. We publish fund prices every business day, with a three-day lag, on www.discovery.co.za
About managing the portfolio
1. The portfolio manager may borrow up to 10% of the portfolio's market value from any appropriate financial institution in order to bridge insufficient liquidity.
2. The portfolio manager can borrow and lend scrip.
3. The portfolio may be closed in order to be managed according to the mandate (if applicable).
Fees and charges for this investment
There are fees and other charges for this investment.
The fees and charges that apply to this investment are included in the net asset value of the units and you do not have to pay any extra amounts. These fees and charges may include:
- The initial fund management fee
- Commission
- Incentives (if applicable)
- Brokerage fees
- Market securities tax
- Auditor fees
- Bank charges
- Trustee fees
- Custodian fees
You can ask us for a schedule of fees, charges and maximum commissions.
The total expense ratio
- "Total Expense Ratio" means a measure of a portfolio's assets that have been expended as payment for services rendered in the management of the portfolio or collective investment scheme, expressed as a percentage of the average daily value of the portfolio or collective investment scheme calculated over a period of a financial year by the manager of the portfolio or collective investment scheme.
- A percentage of the net asset value of the portfolio is for fees and other charges relating to managing the portfolio. The percentage is referred to as the total expense ratio (TER).
- A higher TER does not necessarily imply poor return, nor does a low TER imply good return.
- The current TER is not an indication of any future TERs. If fees go up, the TER is also expected to increase.
- During any phase-in period, the TERs do not include information gathered over a full year.
Transaction costs (TC)
1. Investors and advisers can use transaction cost (TC) as a measure to work out the costs they will incur in buying and selling the underlying assets of a portfolio.
2. The transaction cost is expressed as a percentage of the daily net asset value of the portfolio calculated over three years on an annualised basis. (This means the amount of interest an investment earns each year on average over three years, expressed as a percentage.)
3. Transaction cost is a necessary costs in administering the Fund. It affects the Fund's returns. It should not be considered in isolation as returns may also be affected by many other factors over time, including:
- Market returns
- The type of fund
- The investment decisions of the investment manager
- The TER.
4. Where a fund is less than one year old, the TER and transaction cost cannot be calculated accurately. This is because:
- The life span of the fund is short
- Calculations are based on actual data where possible and best estimates where actual data is not available.
5. The TER and the TC shown on the fund sheet are the latest available figures.