Three things history teaches us about investing

The views expressed in this article are those of Steve Watson and not of Discovery Invest.

 

Media headlines screaming of a recession may have raised concerns for investors. South Africa's economy shrunk by 0.7% in the second quarter of 2018, after a contraction of 2.6% in the first quarter of the year. This placed the country in a technical recession in September.

For the last three to five years, investors have been disappointed by returns from local equity markets. Between the start of the year and the end of August 2018, the JSE All Share Index gained 0.3%. Over the same period, the All Bond Index returned 4.5%, SA Cash gained 4.8% and listed property fell by a whopping 20.1%1.

However, globally we're actually experiencing the longest US bull market in history. In the New York Times, Paul Krugman, put it best when he said, "We're living in an era of political turmoil and economic calm. Can it last?" To answer that question, Steve Watson, Investment Marketing Director for Africa at Investec Asset Management, outlines some of the investment lessons from history that should remind investors to remain focused on their long-term strategy.


History lesson one: Bull markets and economic expansion don't die of old age

An excellent example of this is Australia, which has grown for 108 quarters in a row - that's a total of 27 years (as at May 2018). Bull markets and economic expansion die of shock. Markets don't like surprises, and so it is more important to be prepared for what might go wrong or right, than to monitor the length of the bull market and exiting or entering based on this metric.

So, what could go wrong? The extent of change could be the shock that takes us into a bear market. Examples of global events or changes that could cause a market shock include the trade wars between the US and China, rising populism in Europe and Brexit.

Locally, it's been less rosy. If you look at the graph below, the five-year annualised returns to 31 August 2018 have been reasonable across the five major asset classes in South Africa, but disappointing relative to history. From the riskiest asset class, the All Share Index at the top with 10%, down to listed property at the bottom with 8.47%, returns have been muted in absolute terms. However, all asset classes outperformed inflation, and cumulative returns have been pleasing.

Source: Bloomberg, to 31 August 2018

Still, investors have been disappointed by equity returns over the past three years to the end of August 2018 (see graph below).

Source: Bloomberg, to 31 August 2018

Watson says the questions people always ask at this point are, "Should I change? Has something changed? Is it different this time?" This is where history lesson number two comes in.


History lesson two: Equity returns do not arrive in a nice smooth line

If you look below at the 12-month returns for the major asset classes to the end of August 2018, the lesson is that returns do not arrive in a nice smooth line – and they never have.

Those who have lost courage in the past have paid very dearly for doing so. For example, in 2015, it would have been very tempting for investors to sell out of bonds when it gave them a negative return of 3.9%.

However, that would actually have been a good time to buy bonds, which were great value because in 2016 they gave investors 15.5%. Similarly, if investors switched into the All Share market at the end of 2015, they would have been disappointed in 2016, when it delivered half the previous year's return. But if they switched out of the All Share market based on that performance, they would have missed a 21% return in 2017.

Source: Bloomberg, to 31 August 2018

Although the last 12 months have been extremely difficult, the nature of markets is that they are volatile. The short-term pain is what you pay for the long-term gain.


History lesson three: Trying to time the market, and not sticking to an investment plan, can be very costly  

In the graph below you can see what happens if investors sell one year before the peak. The blue bars on the left graph show you how much performance is missed and the green bars show how much investors lose if they sell one year too late. For example, if you sold out in 1972 when the market made a loss of almost 20%, you would have missed out on a gain of more than 30% the following year.

Looking at the second graph, if you sold out in 2007, after a 10% loss, you would have missed a gain of more than 10% six months later. Trying to time the market often means that you sell too early or wait too long, and there is a similar cost.

Source: Standard & Poor's, asset class returns from 1961 to 2007

To reap the benefits of long-term investing, investors must stay the course. It's rare that plans fail investors, and far more common that investors fail plans.

Why Discovery Invest should be your partner of choice

Despite the current difficult economic environment:

  • The Discovery Balanced Fund had a return of 9.07% for the year to end August 2018 against a benchmark return of 3.80%2
  • The Discovery Diversified Income Fund had a return of 8.47% for the year to end August 2018 against a benchmark return of 7.29%2
  • Our flagship fund, the Discovery Balanced Fund, was the 7th biggest flow taker in the industry, with net flows of R989 million for the second quarter of 2018, making it the 12th biggest retail fund out of more than 1 000 funds in the country (excluding money market funds), as per ASISA (www.asisa.co.za)3
  • The Plexcrown Survey for quarter two 2018 shows Discovery Invest retaining a place among the top five asset managers in the country4.

These accomplishments should reassure clients that their investments are in the right place and there is no need to venture off track by reacting to short-term market movements or downward cycles.

 
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